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Fed Policy Transition and Geopolitical Risk

Fed Policy Transition and Geopolitical Risk

This week, the global macroeconomy was driven by three things: the debut of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at his first FOMC meeting, the U.S.-Iran peace negotiations, and continued uncertainty over inflation. The Federal Reserve held rates steady during Kevin...
The Fed’s Complicated Path Forward

The Fed’s Complicated Path Forward

The U.S. economy delivered another sign that it is coming back to reality. While investors entered the week focused on slowing growth, the labor market once again surprised people, complicating expectations for Fed Policy in the second half of 2026. The headline came...
The Strait That Stopped The World

The Strait That Stopped The World

The biggest story in the world right now isn’t inflation or policy changes. It’s a narrow, 21-mile-wide waterway between Iran and Oman that carries about a fifth of the world’s oil supply. Since late February, the Strait of Hormuz has been at the center of a military...
The Productivity Gamble

The Productivity Gamble

Something strange is happening in the U.S. economy right now, growing while barely adding jobs. Over the past year, the labor force actually shrank by over 550,000 people, a drop we haven’t seen outside of a pandemic or a recession, yet GDP kept climbing. The...