Macro

The biggest...

For most of the past year, it seemed like the US economy was finally recovering from the extreme inflation that followed the pandemic. Inflation had fallen significantly from its 2022 peak, and many investors believed the Fed would begin cutting interest rates this year. That all changed in February, when the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran, disrupting energy markets and causing oil prices to soar.

The UAE’s exit from OPEC, driven by frustration with production quotas, threatens the oil cartel’s cohesion, offering clues to long-term crude prices as the Strait of Hormuz opens.

Silver’s surge is driven by tight supply, rising industrial demand from sectors like EVs and AI, and expectations of lower interest rates boosting investor demand.

Growth is being driven by higher productivity despite a shrinking workforce, but its sustainability is uncertain.

The FY 2027 budget shifts spending heavily toward defense by cutting domestic programs, sparking political and economic tension.