Growth, But at What Cost?

Headline reaction on the Street this week had to involve the preceding month’s jobs report. In January, the U.S. added an exceptionally strong 160,000 jobs, exceeding expectations. Over 60% of which came from healthcare-related jobs. To put this into perspective, 181,000 jobs were added in all of 2025. 

From a macroeconomic point-of-view, this shows that the U.S. economy isn’t slowing down; companies are growing and spending, unemployment has gone down with more people entering the workforce, and firms are confident consumers will continue to spend - at least in the near future. 

Although the economy may be growing, this could make it harder for the Fed to justify aggressive rate cuts. With more jobs and higher wages, demand may outpace supply, leading to inflation. With Trump’s new Fed Chair nominee coming in, it's not clear how the Fed will respond to the surge in jobs in the economy. 

Chris Wright, Energy Secretary, meets with Delcy Rodríguez - WSJ

Also this week, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright visited Caracas, Venezuela, the highest-ranking official from the Trump Administration to visit since the extraction of Venezuela’s leader, Nicolás Maduro. Trump has talked about investing over $100B in foreign investment into Venezuela’s oil production. This would significantly increase global oil supply, as the South American country went from producing around 3 million barrels daily to only 900,000, less than 1% of global output. 

Recent efforts from both the U.S. and Venezuela are trying to entice private companies to drill in the south by changing the law last month to deregulate a tight, state-controlled industry. Be on the lookout for big investments in the oil industry in the coming weeks. 

If the labor market refuses to cool while global energy dynamics shift, the next rate move may come sooner than investors expect.